The chart shows the PMIs for Australia from Judo Bank, smoothed with 5-month centred moving averages. (Data through April). Note the three downward spikes caused by Covid lockdowns in 2020, 2021 and the end of 2022.
Oz's main export markets are China and Japan, not the US. So we won't be directly affected by Trump's tariffs. But we could be indirectly affected by downturns in both countries, consequent on tariff increases; world growth is likely to slow, and may have already started to.
Given that inflation is within its target range (2 - 3%), our exports could be hit, and the A$ is strengthening against the US$, the RBA will likely cut rates a couple of times over the course of the next year. You will be happy to hear that's also the consensus of my economist colleagues.
[Update: Australia's PMI surveys are no longer sponsored by Judo bank, but by S&P Global themselves]
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