EV-Sales blog reports that in the first 4 months of this year, global sales of plug-in cars (full EVs and plug-in hybrids) rose 270% compared to the same period last year. Although the covid crash distorted the data, this is about the growth rate we've seen for the last 5 years if you adjust for that. In other words, EV sales are more than doubling every two years. In the first 4 months of this year, EV/PHEV sales made up an estimated 6 % of global car sales, compared with 3% in mid-2018. At this rate, the EV+PHEV sales percentage will hit 12% in 2023, 24% in 2025, and 48% in 2027 and 96% by 2030.
It's hard to make accurate forecasts for things which are growing exponentially. Small shifts in the rate of growth can lead to large shifts in the level. What is clear, though, is that by 2030, the vast majority of car sales will be electric.
Sales Jan-Apr 2021:
Sales Jan-Apr 2020:
(I am working on getting better data for global car sales for EVs and non-EVs. I'll update you when I do.)
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