The first two charts are plotted using a logarithmic scale, which means that something growing at a constant rate will produce a straight line. Last month, EVs (and PHEVs) surpassed 3% of global car sales. By the end of this year, if the growth rate continues (at roughly 60% per annum, see bottom chart), that percentage will reach 5%.
Will this growth rate continue? In the US, I expect the headlong growth of the last year to slow, as Tesla local sales growth slows. But the reverse is true overseas: Tesla Model 3 will start to be sold in Europe and China this year. And, talking of China, this year sees the start of a 10% minimum EV/PHEV sales quota for new car sales, rising every year from now on. Companies which do not meet this quota will have to buy points from companies which exceed the quota. This will push up the price of ICEVs and push down the price of EVs and to a lesser extent PHEVs (PHEVs will earn half the points of EVs). China's car market is 1/3rd of the world's, so that is going to drive very rapid expansion of the EV penetration even if other forces (Model 3 roll out in Europe, roll out of the $35,000 Model 3, falling battery costs, new EV models from other car manufacturers, etc) weren't operating. Incidentally, Tesla has cut the price of all its cars by $2000, to compensate for the fall in the Federal tax credit. But this is possible (a) because Tesla is now making a profit, and, crucially, (b) its battery costs are falling fast.
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