By which I mean that it's stopped falling.
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| My calculations; big 8 GDP-weighted |
The number of countries with inflation above 4% has risen, as has the number above 6% and 8%. This has prob'ly been driven by a rising dollar, which increases the price of their imports. The implication is that these countries will likely have to raise interest rates or otherwise tighten policy to slow their inflation. And they may also, therefore, end up defaulting on their debts. At the moment, though, the median world central bank rate is still falling.
Meantime, US inflation has stopped falling, and Trump's tariffs and his expulsion of immigrants will drive up US inflation rates. We may end up with "stagflation", a situation where growth is low but inflation is high, not good for markets or politics.
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