Well, guys, how about this? EVs (and some PHEVs) in the US and globally now make up more than 3% of car and light truck sales for the first time. 5 years ago, globally, EVs made up just 0.4% of total car sales. Now it is 3.1%. Global EVs are growing by 60% per annum. This means that by the end of 2020 (at that growth rate) they should make up 5% of global car/light truck sales, by the end of 2021 8%, by the end of 2022, 12.5%, and by the end of 2025, 50%. This growth rate might slow, as US Federal incentives to buy EVs expire. But on the other hand, battery costs are falling fast. By 2020, an EV battery pack could be costing just $100/kWh, by 2025 $50/kWh. And that means EVs will have a lower "sticker price" than ICEVs. Meanwhile, governments everywhere want clean air. China, a third of the global car market, has mandated a steady rise in the percentage of EVs in total sales.
Years and years ago, when I was at business school, I did a fascinating course on long-term forecasting and technological shifts. The technological S-curve adoption was discussed (this was long before mobile phones and microwave ovens and PCs/laptops, but the principles remain unchanged), and numerous examples were given where, once a new technology crossed 5% of the market, its rise to 100% was inevitable. In 2021, EVs will make up more than 5% of new car sales. You can bet your last quid that ratio will reach 100%, and probably before 2030. What then for the oil price? Or car mechanics? Service stations? Saudi Arabia? Russia? Geo-politics? The new strategic minerals won't be oil and coal, they'll be lithium and cobalt. We won't have to kowtow to nasty authoritarian oil producers much longer because by 2025 oil demand for fuel (as opposed to chemical feedstocks, roads and lubricants) will be falling by 5% per annum.
This is a truly extraordinary milestone.
➥ As ever, source of basic data is Inside EVs, FRED and OICA. My seasonal adjustment, my graphics program.
No comments:
Post a Comment