Thursday, July 18, 2019

Inherit the legend

Nearly 50 years ago, on July 21st, 1969, the first man ever to do so set foot on the Moon.  In perhaps another 3 years, there will once again be humans on the Moon, this time to stay.  SpaceX plans commercial launches of its BFR to LEO (low Earth orbit) starting two years from now, and 'Dear Moon' is scheduled for 2023.  What an achievement the first Moon landing was.  We are standing on the shoulders of giants.

Here is a image from HumanMars by Gravitation Innovation of the Saturn V rocket next to SpaceX's Starship (BFS) and Super Heavy (BFR).   BTW, I think Gravitation Innovation is too pessimistic.  Unless something goes very wrong we'll be on the Moon before 2025, and on Mars in 2025.  Could something go very wrong?  Alas, yes.  The stainless steel Starship might not be viable.  It might disintegrate on re-entry, for example.  There will be other failures like the 'unscheduled disassembly' of Crew Dragon, which will delay the whole process.  Since we can, realistically, only get to Mars whenever it is is opposition to the Earth (i.e., when it is closest) a 3 month delay would postpone the Mars expedition by 2 years.   That doesn't apply to the Moon, though.  A 3 month delay will be just that for expeditions to the Moon.


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