Thursday, July 18, 2019

US Housing permits slow

In the USA, statistics for both housing starts and housing permits are calculated.  On the whole, housing permits are perhaps slightly the better indicator, because starts will be affected by the weather, while the number of permits issued will not, plus permits have a slightly better lead, because obviously a permit has to be obtained before construction can start.  Housing permits issued are falling, though not precipitously.  But they have been falling since early 2018.  Given that the long-term mortgage rate has been falling for months (it started rising in July), one would have expected housing starts to pick up not fall.  

Interesting—an indicator of consumer and investor uncertainty about the longer-term eco picture.


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