S&P has prolly peaked

Back in December at the low point for the S&P500 (2351) I said that the market was extremely oversold and therefore would rebound, but that, in my judgement, it wasn't the beginning of a new bull market.  It's been an amazing run, though.

The market is now extremely overbought.  All the good news is now in share prices, so it's vulnerable to any unexpected bad news -- which always comes.  Those who bought back into the market close to of after the lows will now be wondering whether they should crystallise cash profits, i.e., sell.  If the market does retreat from the recent high, it will form a "head and shoulders" top, which tends to be quite bearish.

If, however, the market just goes sideways from here, and momentum falls back to neutral levels, then the market will likely, in 6 or 8 weeks, head higher.  We shall see.