From EMBER.
Record solar capacity of 17 GW will be installed in Africa in 2026, up 45% year-on-year
Chinese exports of solar panels to Africa surged in the 12 months to June 2026, to levels similar to each of the Middle East and Latin America. This report introduces a new methodology, showing around 73% of Chinese imports globally have been installed, with an average six-month delay. This makes it possible to estimate full-year 2026 installations already. This shows 17 GW of solar was installed in 2026, equal to around 100,000 solar panels every day. That is a 45% rise year-on-year; 2025 rose by 51% and 2024 by 25%.
This is happening everywhere: 36 out of Africa’s 54 countries are expected to install record amounts of solar in 2026
19 countries have seen year-on-year growth of over 100%, including 544% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 282% in Zimbabwe, 176% in Egypt and 117% in Zambia. Solar growth used to be dominated by South Africa, but its share of African installations in 2026 will be below 20% for the first time since 2019, as other countries surge. Solar is now the single biggest addition to grid capacity in many African countries - Senegal will add solar capacity from 2023 to 2026 equivalent to almost 80% of its entire 2023 grid capacity, with DRC and Kenya adding more than half.
2026 new solar generation can meet Africa’s historic electricity demand growth
2026’s installations will generate around 23 TWh a year - 2.3% of Africa’s electricity generation, above the 2.2% average annual demand growth of 2014 to 2024. There are ten countries where 2026’s new solar will add more than 10% to annual grid electricity generation - Sierra Leone (97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%), DRC (14%), Comoros (14%), Namibia (12%), Liberia (12%), Chad (11%), Lesotho (10%). Together these countries are home to 190 million people.
Half of the estimated rise in solar is missing from official statistics - because national reporting is so poor
Ember’s 2025 solar growth estimate is twice that of international statistics - 12.0 GW in 2025, compared with 6.2 GW from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and 4.6 GW from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Ember forecasts annual installations in 2026 will rise another 45%, potentially increasing this gap further. However, international reporting can only be as good as national reporting, and that barely exists in many countries. We could only find official reporting for national solar capacity for 36 out of 54 countries; only 14 of those were for 2025, and even those 14 countries seem to underestimate the rise in solar. Only three countries - South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania - publish some solar data monthly or quarterly.
Three-quarters of Africa’s solar growth is likely from distributed solar - and that is exactly what’s difficult to measure
Distributed solar, which is small-scale, customer-side solar installed mostly on rooftops - makes up most of Africa’s solar growth, and it’s the hardest type to measure. Ember estimates that 75% (20 GW of 26 GW) of the total solar capacity added between 2023 and 2025 is distributed solar. That’s because only a quarter of new solar can be explained by utility-scale and off-grid solar - utility-scale solar is fairly well-documented and visible through government procurement projects, and although off-grid solar is growing fast, its scale would still be very small in context of the gap. This is the case even in countries with large utility-scale solar projects - in Egypt, for example, still 43% of its solar growth is estimated to be distributed. There are just 12 countries that report an official or semi-official distributed solar figure, yet those still underestimate the growth. The lack of visibility on distributed solar is not unique to Africa, but a combination of factors makes it worse. A surge in companies, registries and licences show the solar rise is real.
Will solar actually increase electricity demand in Africa?
Electricity demand growth in Africa is low. It averaged 2.2% per year from 2014 to 2024, which is lower even than the global rate of 2.6%. Solar has helped Pakistan to leapfrog to higher electricity demand growth, after years of paltry growth. In Pakistan, total electricity demand rose by 21% in just two years from 2023 to 2025, met entirely by the newly installed distributed solar generation. But what’s more, Ember’s research showed this solar actually helped Pakistan’s electricity demand to rise - creating huge societal benefits. Distributed solar was faster: in just two years, 27 GW of distributed solar was installed, equivalent to the capacity of all operating coal, gas and oil plants ever built in Pakistan. Distributed solar was cheaper – residential solar with a medium battery produces electricity at around PKR 20 per kWh, half the PKR 40 cost of grid electricity - air conditioning at grid prices is just unaffordable for many. Distributed solar was better – it eliminated daytime loadshedding, avoided more than $12 billion USD in oil and gas imports by February 2026, reduced CO2 and air pollution and saved transmission and distribution losses. Like in Pakistan, many African countries have low electricity demand because of low electricity supply. Solar can help to drive the electricity demand growth that African countries need.
Solar is up-ending Africa’s diesel market, saving billions in diesel imports
The US-Iran conflict and the removal of subsidies in some countries, including Nigeria and Egypt, have led to a sharp rise in retail diesel prices. The economics before were compelling; now they are urgent. Diesel generators are commonplace across the many countries in Africa which face unreliable electricity supply. A 2022 report from WoodMac showed at least 17 African countries have more distributed diesel generator capacity than they do grid-connected power-generation capacity. Solar is undoubtedly being installed by people who own a diesel generator, to save money buying diesel. There is also a large amount of off-grid diesel that will be replaced with solar. Irrigation might be the biggest. In Pakistan, there is already an estimated 7 GW of solar tube wells providing irrigation - Morocco already had 40,000 solar irrigation pumps by 2020, and Egypt likely has a lot more. The use of solar to replace diesel generation at smaller, rich off-grid houses or tourist hotels is likely to have grown rapidly. Also, one company alone in Nigeria added 60 MW of solar to power phone masts. This reduces imports - the import cost of a Chinese solar panel is a fraction of what the import cost of diesel would be for diesel generators. Generating the same electricity from a diesel generator as from a solar panel would cost as much in diesel, every three months, as the solar panel itself. Yet solar panels last for 30 years or more, saving significant costs on constant diesel top-ups. The Chinese solar panel exports into Africa in the 12 months to June 2026 cost $2.4 billion USD, according to the Chinese customs agency; at $1.40 USD per litre of diesel, generating the same amount of electricity as those imported solar panels would need $2.4 billion USD of diesel every three months. So, in the hypothetical extreme scenario that all solar is displacing diesel generators, Chinese solar panels would save $2.4 billion USD on imports every three months, having paid for themselves in the first three months.
Economic growth in Africa has long been constrained by poor electricity grids. Cheap solar panels and batteries are allowing people and businesses to bypass the grid and get electricity. And unlike high-latitude countries (e.g., Denmark or Canada) the variation between high solar season and low is relatively small (often the "low" season is the rainy season, which is usually summer). This very rapid expansion in electricity supply will lead to higher economic growth. This doesn't just apply to Africa, but to any developing country in the sunbelt, such as Pakistan.
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