Saturday, October 17, 2026

World Central Bank discount rates keep on rising

Some went up sharply (Uganda's, by a swingeing 2.25%, because its currency is collapsing) while others fell almost as sharply (Zambia's, because of falling inflation).  But on average, they have continued to rise, with the US and the Euro area the biggies.  Since inflation, driven by the Iran war, hasn't yet peaked and looks unlikely to in the short term, expect Central Banks to keep on tightening, with obvious consequences for share markets and the global economy.  This is on top of the economy-crunching effect of a rapid rise in oil prices (see lower chart).


'83% of world' is the weighted average of countries making up 83% of world GDP.
'Median' is the middle of the range of DRs for all the countries I monitor for each day
'Unweighted average' is the simple average (mean) of all countries I monitor.


Oil prices are heading back towards their cyclical high for this cycle $118.  (Previous cyclical highs: March 2022, $129.49; July 2008, $143.57)




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