No, the world economy isn't booming ...

 ... even though the manufacturing PMIs are up.

In the chart above, the dotted blue line, representing the big-8 manufacturing PMI, has jumped since the start of the Gulf War, while the services component (dotted red line) has plunged.  At first sight, the jump in manufacturing appears reassuring, but it is misleading.  In commentaries for individual countries, not just the big 8, but others, S&P Global, who calculate these indices, mention that many correspondents have increased stocks (inventories) to try and mitigate the rise in prices they think likely to happen.  In turn, this has led to increased orders and production--remember that everybody's spending is someone else's income.  But when prices have risen, there will no longer be the incentive to build up inventories.  Sales will drop, until inventories are once again in sync with demand and production.  De-stocking will occur, reducing output, sales and employment.

In contrast, services can't be stored in inventories.  You can't 'keep' a haircut or a meal in a restaurant or a holiday or an air trip.  You can't have a stack of services like these in a box in a warehouse.  And because people are directly, right now, feeling the effects of surging oil prices and increased uncertainty, they have cut back.  And until confidence is restored, that will continue.  As the dotted red line shows, services are already in trouble.

But confidence will be very hard to restore.  The US has shown that it does not care about the stability of the world economy or the oil market, and there is no obvious off-ramp for Trump and his haplessly amateur administration.   The oil market is in chaos, and very shortly demand destruction, that is, the reduction in GDP and spending and production to bring oil demand and supply into balance, will begin.  In the short term, oil demand is extremely inelastic, i.e., it is unresponsive to price.  In the longer term, of course, things will happen to shift the relationship between oil demand and GDP, such as switching to EVs for example, or making jet engines and aeroplanes more efficient.   But until those changes take effect, the only way to bring oil demand into balance with oil supply is to contract demand.  The longer the war lasts, the worse the downturn will be.  This is clearest in air transport, where a physical shortage of fuel will constrain the number of flights.  But it applies to road transport as well.  Also, how do people who drive to work by car cut their petrol use?  They can't, so they'll spend less on everything else.  Demand will fall as prices rise.

Economies take time to stop, and time to re-accelerate.  The services PMIs show an immediate response, which will spread into the rest of the economy, soon.

Every previous oil crisis has been followed by recessions.  This one will be no different, unless the war ends now.  And that seems extremely unlikely.