The dotted lines show the PMI indices for manufacturing/services for the Euro Area, each extreme-adjusted (by me) to remove "spikes". The solid red line shows the average of the other two.
Up to two months ago, the red line had been rising, pointing to an economic recovery. Normally, manufacturing and construction lead services, and the manufacturing PMI has been falling, so the fall in the services PMI probably isn't a fluke, but a response to the downturn in manufacturing,
China's PMIs have picked up fractionally, but Europe's, the USA's, Brazil's and Canada's manufacturing PMIs are falling, with most other countries' going sideways.
Again, not recession, at least not yet, but clearly stagnation.
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