The Empire State survey by the NY Fed is only one of the 5 regional Fed surveys. But, as you can see, its correlation with (national) GDP is quite good. It is one of the earliest indicators of economic activity in the most recent period. In a few days, the Philly Fed survey will be released, and this has an even better correlation with GDP. We'll see what that shows.
In the chart below, I have smoothed the Empire State data using a 5-month centred moving average, and plotted it with a 3-month lag. In other words, the plunge in the survey gives a forecast of the next three months, and points towards falling GDP.
Data through June 2025.
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