Chart from Our World in Data
In 2014, coal supplied 44.4% of world electricity. By 2025 this had fallen to 33%. This is too slow — a mere 1% a year. We need to cut the percentage coming from coal to zero within 10 years, which translates into a 3.3% per annum decline. The rise in solar plus batteries could easily cope with that, given its exponential growth.
But that means that any coal power stations built now, or in the last ten years, will be stranded assets. So national authorities/utilities will be reluctant to accept this. Yet, if battery-solar goes on getting cheaper at the rate it has been, would it make sense for any country to tie itself to outmoded, expensive energy, and reduce their economic competitiveness like this? The USA is. Will China, the biggest user of coal in the world, also sacrifice itself to an expensive, filthy and unnecessary technology? Will India? Will Indonesia? I suspect not.
It's easier for fast-growing economies to cut coal's percentage, because they can just add solar to the mix. But the cost of battery-solar will soon be cheaper than even electricity from paid-off, fully depreciated coal power stations. I think they'll start by closing the oldest, dirtiest power stations first. But it would help if they stopped building new ones.
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