Friday, February 14, 2025

We really aren't going to achieve 1.5

From David Ho

A constant reminder that even if CO₂ emissions decreased annually as much as they did during the pandemic lockdown from now to 2030, we still wouldn't meet our emission target to keep global warming below 1.5°C.


To get to real zero (let's stop calling it "net zero" because we all know that carbon offsets don't work) by 2050, emissions would have to fall by 9% per annum.  Actually, that's not even to real zero; that's to a 90% reduction from today.  Calculating a cumulative decline involves using exponentials, and they don't work to zero.  What about if we target a 99% decrease by 2050?  We'd have to cut emissions by 17% per year.  

Just a reminder:  emissions are still rising.  And the rise in temperatures is accelerating.


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