This is an interesting video. The author discusses the cost of producing oil, and how it varies a lot between different oil producers. Among the most expensive oil is shale oil in the USA. And new oil from shale deposits is 50% more expensive than existing oil. However, China, which has been responsible for much of the growth in global oil demand, and is the largest buyer of oil, has reached peak oil demand this year. Analysts assumed that as China got richer, it would buy more cars, adding to oil demand. And so it did. Only they were EVs.
The first oil producers to lose market share as oil demand and the oil price slide, will the most expensive. These are, in order, the UK, Brazil, Canada, United States.
There is little Trump/Musk can do about this. I suppose Trump can issue an executive order banning EVs outside the USA, a modern-day King Canute. How we laughed.
Tariffs can protect the US car market. But in South America, SE Asia, Africa, Mexico and China, in fact almost everywhere outside the USA, EVs are going to go to reach 100% of sales in short order. Meanwhile, in the USA, the car industry is going to be left further and further behind the world car industry, because it will not be forced to adapt, and the programs that the Biden administration introduced, which subsidised local EV manufacture, to force the auto industry to modernise, have been rescinded.
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