China plug-in share reaches 44%

 From CleanTechnica

 

Plugin vehicles are all the rage in the Chinese auto market, with plugins scoring 703,000 sales (in a 1.6-million-unit overall market). That’s up 27% year over year (YoY).

Looking deeper at the numbers, BEVs were up 10%, while PHEVs did even better, jumping 65% in April. Breaking down plugin sales by powertrain, BEVs had 59% of sales, below this year’s average of 65%, proving the rising popularity of plugin hybrids in this market.

The year-to-date (YTD) tally is around 2.5 million units, a significant rise over the 1.9 million in the same period of 2023.

Share-wise, April saw plugin vehicles hit 44% market share! Full electrics (BEVs) alone accounted for 26% of the country’s auto sales. This pulled the 2024 share also to 40% (26% BEV), and with the market still with plenty of room for growth, the first half of the year should end above 40%. (And maybe above 50% by year end?) [At this growth rate, EV/PHEVs will reach 100% market share with 3 years. 2027!!!!]

China's car market is roughly 1/3 of the global car market. The way China goes will drive the way the world goes, even though the USA and Europe impose protective tariffs. CATL's reduction in li-ion battery pack costs to US$56/kWh and the introduction of na-ion (sodium-ion) battery packs at around US$40/kWh (in 2020 battery pack costs were $160/kWh, meaning the cost of a typical battery pack has fallen from US$10,000 to $2,400), plus aggressive competition, will drive down down EV and PHEV prices and drive up the market share, which is likely to reach 100% long before 2035.

Growth in the US and Europe is likely to pause for a year or two, unfortunately, because of protective tariffs. But a new Tesla giga-factory in Indonesia, and probably also India, shows how the shift will happen. Legacy carmakers in Europe and the USA will go on losing market share, and eventually they and the politicians will be forced to face up to reality.

EV sales growth in China slowed last year because of the state of the economy. They have picked up this year as can be seen in the chart, but if, as I believe, growth will slow again later this year, EV sales growth will likely slow. However EV/PHEV market share will continue to rise.  In January 2014, EV sales in China, seasonally adjusted, were 3760; in April this year 914,000.   

My seasonal adjustment; smoothed using a 13-term Henderson curve.

Oh, and need I mention the dread words, "peak oil"?