World PMI very sluggish

This is my calculation of world manufacturing PMI, compared with J.P. Morgan's calculation.  I only started keeping the J.P. Morgan data in 2011, which is why I needed to make my own calculation to understand previous cycles.  Where I don't have back data for individual countries, I have used manufacturing business confidence, and estimated what each country's PMI would have been if it had been calculated by IHS Markit (which used to publish PMI data before S&P Global took over.)  In some cases, I have smoothed the input series (some, such as ABSA's PMI for South Africa, or the AIG PMI for Australia or Canada's Ivey survey, are very "spiky", i.e., have large month-to-month random errors.)  In other cases, I have extreme-adjusted the series before I used them to calculate my estimate of world PMI.  This mostly, in effect, reduced the down spike from COVID, but had some small effects elsewhere.

Why this chart is interesting is because, hitherto, in all recoveries, from deep recessions or shallower slow-downs, the rebound has been sharp.  This cycle, it's been a slow, and not especially steady ascent.  Observe that it actually began a steep-ish recovery at the end of 2023, before it fizzled out.

Obviously, Trump's tariff tango has something to do with this, but I suspect there's more to it.  Inflation isn't falling like it should be when the economy is so sluggish, and part of the reason for that is the growth of monopoly and oligopoly is the US, and the West's determination to stop China exporting its deflation to the world, particularly in cars, solar panels and batteries, via tariffs and quotas.  Why was inflation lower before Covid, when manufacturing was just as concentrated as it is now?  Because everybody expected inflation to remain low.   But in the Covid rebound, firms found that they could indulge in a bit of "greedflation", and pushed up their margins, and expectations have accordingly shifted.  Monopolies and oligopolies now know they can shove up prices every year by more than they used to, and get away with it.  To use more technical terms, inflation over the last few years has been more cost-push than demand driven.

Sluggish growth may well continue, even though Europe is clearly (finally) recovering.  But higher inflation means that Central Banks will be reluctant (=slow) to cut interest rates.   And if the AI bubble pops, the US will go into recession.   If that happens, the US dollar will plunge, pushing other economies themselves into slow-downs or recession.  

Of course, happy days may be here again.  But I hae me doots.