Despite the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) services index spiking up in August, the GDP-weighted average PMI for the Big 8 (US, UK, Euro area, Japan, China, Russia, India, Brazil) fell again in August. Since it's been services (air travel, eating out, holidays, hotels, and shows) which have been holding up the world economy, it seems likely that world GDP growth is continuing to slow. The green line shows the average of the Big 8 manufacturing and services PMIs. But the gap between the manufacturing and the services PMIs remains the highest it's been for over a decade---"revenge spending" is still happening, even if it's less than it was.
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