The first global stocktake - an accounting of progress to the Paris climate goals - is out. The red is the range of promised actions. The blue and teal are where we need to be. Full report here: unfccc.int/documents/6316
 |
| NDC = nationally determined contribution INDC = intended nationally determined contributions (i.e., what countries are actually going to do) LULUCF = land use, land use change and forestry |
To prevent a rise in temperatures of 2 degrees, emissions need to fall 21% by 2030. This is a compound rate of decline of 3.4% per annum., and is perfectly feasible. But emissions are still rising.
There are one or two optimistic signs. Sinopec, China's largest oil company, has stated that the rate of EV take-up in China means that oil demand (and therefore emissions from oil) has peaked in China. Biden's Inflation Reduction Act is likely to slash emissions in the US. Europe's emissions from fossil fuels used in electricity generation are the lowest in 25 years, and increasingly individual European countries are going several days without using coal at all. Plus EVs in Europe have passed the S-curve tipping point, so oil demand there is also likely to be peaking soon.
But, on the other hand, China is still building new coal power stations hand over fist, officially as "backup" for renewables, after droughts have seriously affected hydro output. Yet capacity utilisation in coal power stations continues to fall. Will the government feel itself obliged to walk back from its peak emissions commitment to save these stranded assets?
In any case, will emissions fall by 3.4% per annum between now and 2030? Certainly, the +-7.7% per annum needed between now and 2030 seems unachievable. In other words: 2 degrees, or more.
No comments:
Post a Comment