The NY Fed's "Empire State" and the Philadelphia Fed's "Philly Fed" only cover the NE of the USA, but usually their average value correlates well with the two national surveys by the ISM. Right now, the two are diverging: the smoothed extreme-adjusted average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys is still trending up, while the extreme-adjusted ISM is still falling, though more slowly.
This has happened before, though not often. For example, in 2019, the two diverged only for the Philly Fed/Empire State average to snap back to ISM in 2020.
Services are holding up the economy. If services start to fall, the US will fall into recession. We'll get some indication of whether this is happening when the "flash" estimates of manufacturing and services PMIs are released early next week.
This is the average for the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys before extreme-adjustment and smoothing:
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