As usual, the line to watch is the thick green one.
To recap:
- The economy started to recover in late 2024, the expected response to the Fed's earlier interest rate cuts.
- But this recovery was aborted after Trump massively increased uncertainty with his tariffs
- A year later, we are seeing the first tentative signs that the recovery might have resumed.
- But note, the upward slope of the green line is much less steep than in previous recoveries
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