From a Twitter thread by Professor Ray Wills, who along with Tony Seba, has been consistently right with his forecasts for the growth in EV sales. He has been even more optimistic than me, and I was very optimistic. In mid-2016, when EV/PHEV sales were just 1% of global car sales, I forecast that they would reach 16% in 2022. They reached 10% in 2021, and at current growth rates should hit ±16% in 2022. The problem with most forecasters is that they extend lines linearly instead of exponentially. If something is growing by 50% per annum, it goes up 10-fold every 5 and a half years. EV sales are growing by 70% per annum, while total car and commercial vehicle sales are falling. Wills's forecast of an end to ICEV sales by 2025 seems perfectly plausible.
Sales of electric cars hit 6.6m in 2021
> 3X EVs market share from 2019
> 2X 2020
16m #EVs on the road worldwide
More #EVs now sold every week than in the whole of 2012
But overall car sales are still falling
We hit peak car in 2017
 |
| Note that these are sales of EVs only, and do not include PHEVs |
 |
| Note how hybrids are falling and how (B)EVs are now dominant |
 |
| China is 1/3rd of the global car/light truck market |
 |
| Full self driving (level 5) by 2027! Transport as a service (TaaS) takes off. |
No comments:
Post a Comment