Deep recession likely in USA

As in Europe and Japan, preliminary ("flash") PMIs fell sharply, with the PMI for services falling much more than the PMI for manufacturing.  You can see in the chart below just how deep the services decline is.   You can see how the nascent recovery from the middle of last year has sharply reversed.

Because the US at a Federal level is not doing anywhere enough to slow the spread of the covid-19 virus, it risks having by far the worst economic decline among developed countries.  In China, for example, restrictions are being gradually lifted, and this means economic growth will resume, though with all its trading partners still very weak, recovery will be slow.  The Chinese lockdown lasted 7 weeks.  The US lockdown has scarcely begun.  The USA is many weeks away from being able to relax virus restrictions.

So although the decline in the PMIs to date is consistent with a 2-ish% fall in GDP, because the economy has only begun its descent, deeper declines are very likely.  At the worst point in 2009, US GDP fell 3.9% year on year.  This time the downturn will be worse.