No El Niño, yet hottest January ever

The last El Niño was in 2015/16.  During an El Niño event, heat that has been previously absorbed by the ocean is re-released into the atmosphere, raising average atmospheric temperatures.  So for temperatures to exceed El Niño levels in a normal year is a pretty big deal.  That's what's just happened.  January was the hottest January ever recorded.

Source: NOAA

The average for the 12 months to January is now just a whisker below the 2016 record.  Even though we are NOT having an El Niño. 

Source: NOAA

Over the last decade, the increase in the global temperature anomaly was 0.3 degrees.  If that continues, by 2050 temperatures will have risen another 0.9 degrees C, or basically 2 degrees since the beginning of the industrial revolution.  It might not continue, but an acceleration of the rate of increase  would be consistent with the continued rise in emissions.  The 1 degree rise we have already seen has had severe consequences.  No one knows how bad 2 degrees will be.  What's more, temperatures will go on rising until emissions reach zero.  In fact they may go on rising for a couple of decades even after emissions reach zero because of the lags in the climate system.

If we cut emissions by 5% per year cumulative, they'll have fallen 80% by 2050 and 95% by 2070, which would mean that by 2070, temperatures will have risen 2.5 degrees since before the industrial revolution began.  This is flirting with catastrophe.  We need to do better.  Much better.

And emissions aren't falling.  And by the time they are, the annual percentage reduction will have to be higher than 5%.  Every year we delay, every lie by a fossil fuel advocate, every bit of greenwashing by a politician or a company just makes the ultimate adjustment harder.