A couple of months ago, I thought that the rebound in China's PMI, which was consistent with the monetary and fiscal stimulation undertaken by the Chinese authorities, was the beginning of a new up-cycle in the Chinese economy. If so, it's not exactly a robust rebound. Both the official PMI and Caixin Bank's were down in June, and both are below the 50% level.
I still think that the stimulus applied so far will be enough to engineer a recovery, but it is a sign of just how negative the Trump trade wars are for China (for everybody, really) that the recovery is so feeble. And there are straws in the wind suggesting that demand is very weak. New car registrations, for example, are down 17% year on year.
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