Uptick in Oz's PMI—but trend still down

Commonwealth Bank's manufacturing PMI ticked up in June, from 51 (just above the recession line) to 52.  The trend, though, remains down.  There's a fair bit of volatility in this indicator—remember, the surveyors don't ask whether your business is better than 3 months ago, which would produce a smoother series, but whether it's better than last month.  Oz is being helped by a soaring iron ore price, but hindered by a collapsing coal price and exceptionally low wage growth.

My forecast is that this uptick will not be sustained.