US PMIs plunge

The preliminary US PMIs for May for both manufacturing/industry and services fell sharply, the former from 52.6 to 50.6 (just above the recession threshold), the latter from 53.0 to 50.9.  My extreme adjustment program thinks those falls are too large, but that's not much comfort since the trends are down.  (PMI's are derived from a monthly survey of company purchasing managers).

My US longer-leading index has stopped falling (but hasn't started rising), though you must remember that it leads the eco cycle by anything from 1 to 2 years.  So we've prolly got another 12 months or more of continued decline in the US.  That will take us into recession territory.

This chart neatly shows the workings of my extreme adjustment program
Major "spikes" are removed, smaller ignored.  The trend is therefore much clearer.

This chart shows the average of the extreme-adjusted manufacturing and services PMIs
A number below 50% means that more than half of the correspondents report that their
sales, deliveries, etc., are down on the previous month.  We're not there.  Yet.