Australia: 50% renewables by 2025

An interesting commentary in The Conversation:

The Australian renewable energy industry will install more than 10 gigawatts of new solar and wind power during 2018 and 2019. If that rate is maintained, Australia would reach 50% renewables in 2025.

Our analysis, released today by the ANU Energy Change Institute, shows that the Australian energy industry has now demonstrated the capacity to deliver 100% renewable electricity by the early 2030s, if the current rate of installations continues beyond the end of this decade.

Last year was a record year for renewable energy in Australia, with 2,200 megawatts of capacity added. Based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator, during 2018 and 2019 Australia will install about 10,400MW of new renewable energy, comprising 7,200MW of large-scale renewables and 3,200MW of rooftop solar (see charts below). This new capacity is divided roughly equally between large-scale solar photovoltaics (PV), wind farms, and rooftop solar panels. This represents a per-capita rate of 224 watts per person per year, which is among the highest of any nation.

Our projections are based on the following assumptions:

• demand (including behind-the-meter demand) remains constant. Demand has changed little in the past decade
• large- and small-scale solar PV and wind power continue to be deployed at their current rates of 2,000MW, 1,600MW and 2,000MW per year, respectively
• large- and small-scale solar PV and wind continue to have capacity factors of 21%, 15% and 40%, respectively
• existing hydro and bio generation remains constant at 20 terawatt-hours per year
• fossil fuels meet the rapidly declining balance of demand.

The current deployment rate might continue because:

• large-scale generation certificates will continue to be issued by the Clean Energy Regulator to accredited new renewables generators right up until 2030
• renewable investment opportunities are broadening beyond the wholesale electricity market, as companies value the economic benefits and green profile of renewable energy supply contracts. For example, British steel magnate Sanjeev Gupta has announced plans to install more than 1GW of renewable energy at the Whyalla steelworks, and Sun Metals in Townsville has already installed 125MW of solar capacity
• the price of wind and PV will continue to fall rapidly, opening up further market opportunities and putting downward pressure on electricity prices
• increased use of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps for water and space heating are expected to increase electricity demand. This increased demand is expected to be met by wind and solar PV, which represent almost all new generation capacity in Australia
• retiring existing coal power stations are being replaced by PV and wind.

As the electricity sector approaches and exceeds 50% renewables, more investment will be required in storage (like batteries and pumped hydro) and in high-voltage interconnections between regions to smooth out the effects of local weather and demand.

We have previously shown the hourly cost of this grid balancing is about A$5 per MWh for a renewable energy fraction of 50%, rising to A$25 per MWh at 100% renewables.

Note that they are not forecasting an increase in the rate of growth of renewables.  They're just extrapolating existing trends.  Note how cheap "grid balancing" will be -- and they're prolly using unrealistically high costs for batteries. 

As y'all may know, the right-wing Ozzie government of the Liberal-National coalition has done its level best to keep coal in the mix and to undermine renewables deployment.  They have failed, because renewables are cheaper.  Simple.  And if Australia can do it, any country can.