Tuesday, January 15, 2019

US EV sales slow a little in December

That is, on a seasonally adjusted basis.  They were strong unadjusted, but they always are in December (hence the need for seasonal adjustment).  The growth rate after the hectic expansion of the last year as the Model 3 production increased is also peaking, although I don't think it will fall back to the lows of 2017. which were driven I think by customers waiting for the Model 3.  I don't doubt that by the end of this year (2019) EV & PHEV sales will make up 5% of total US car and light truck sales.  What could make me wrong?  Tesla blowing up (not very likely), EV sales slowing as petrol (gasoline) prices fall (but Telsa still has a 300,000 waiting list for the Model 3 and will introduce the $35,000 base version in a couple of months), the US slowdown gets so deep that ppl stop buying cars (hmmm......)

(I changed the plots on the first two charts from an arithmetic to a logarithmic scale because it shows the growth in recent years better--but shows the growth in those first years not so well.  Such is life.)




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