Moral of the story: economic growth in the US, as measured by real GDP, is about to plunge. Which is prolly why the Fed has backed away from further rate increases, and is muttering about slowing the unwinding of QE.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
US econ slumps
The various regional branches of the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) do surveys of business conditions in their region. If you add 5 of them together (unweighted) you get an indicator which closely follows the year on year change in real GDP, but leads it by 3-5 months. We now have data for January. This is perfectly consistent with my longer-leading index which points to an at best slowdown in 2019 and 2020 and at worst recession. Of which more anon.
Moral of the story: economic growth in the US, as measured by real GDP, is about to plunge. Which is prolly why the Fed has backed away from further rate increases, and is muttering about slowing the unwinding of QE.
Moral of the story: economic growth in the US, as measured by real GDP, is about to plunge. Which is prolly why the Fed has backed away from further rate increases, and is muttering about slowing the unwinding of QE.
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