US EV sales boom, thanks to Tesla

Thanks to the exponential growth of Tesla Model 3 sales, US EV/PHEV sales are exploding.  This chart isn't plotted on a log scale, which makes the classic exponential growth curve more obvious.

Sales as a per cent of total car and light truck sales show the same trend:

And year-on-year growth is a scintillating 70%.

In the Tesla Q2 conference call, the company guided that it will produce 50-55 K Model 3s in Q3, which suggests the growth rate will slow, but only a little -- the July production rate was the equivalent of about 45K per quarter.  Tesla still hasn't started producing the base $35K model of the Model 3.  The cheapest it offers now is the long-range premium-interior, which starts at $49K.  When the base model goes on sale, there is likely to be another sales explosion. Musk commented that customers are the best sales force, and as more and more people gets their hands on Model 3s, more and more will want them.

Already, the Model 3 is outselling all other premium mid-size sedans put together in the US:

Source: Electrek

And Tesla is only in the middle of the Model 3 production ramp-up!


Other highlights were that the company will be profitable and cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 and that this will continue.  So strong will cash flow be that even if the convertible bonds are not converted, Tesla will have enough cash to repay them and they will have enough cash to fund the new Tesla factory in Shanghai.  Also, they expect to install 1 GWh of battery storage this year, equal to the total storage they've installed in the last 5 years.  And they've created their own chip to run the autopilot software which is 10 times faster than Nvidia's chip which is what they currently use. [Watch Hyper Change's video of the Q2 conference call here]

Guys (and gals):

1.  Tesla is not going to go bankrupt.  Not.  Rather the opposite, in fact.
2.  Utility-scale battery storage is taking off, exponentially.  Bad news for fossil-fuelled energy, good for the global climate.
3. EV/PHEV sales will be 3% of total US car/light truck sales by the end of this year, at least 5% by end 2019 and close to 10% by end 2020.  The S-curve is flexing up.
4. The same thing will happen in overseas car markets as Model 3 production ramps up and exports to Europe and the rest of the world start.
5. Be extremely cautious about investing in oil unless that company is diversifying into gas and renewables.  Even then be cautious.
6. Musk is continually underestimated by the nay-sayers. He bet the shop on the Model 3 and he is winning the bet.  His achievements with Tesla will be matched by achievements in SpaceX and elsewhere.  Mars in 2024 or 2026, anyone?