The rout in bonds continues.
In my experience, bond investors are realistic and canny and cynical. Unlike share investors, they're not seduced by "blue sky" arguments. They see improving growth, stubborn inflation, an endless Iran war, enormous supply of paper from the US, the risk of retaliation by the US's former allies. All bad for bonds.
Rising government bond yields lead to rising cost of corporate debt, especially in the dodgy private credit market, which is funding the AI bubble. And that will be complemented by rising discount rates. Credit will tighten. None of these things is good for growth. Or the stock market.
Short-term chart — going to new cycle highs (US cycle high in late 23).
Long-term chart — near or past 20 year highs, decades-long bond bull market kaput, underpinnings of 20-year share-market bull market over.
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