Note: the 2018, 2019 & 2020 numbers are not forecasts, they're the date at which the projects will be commissioned.
Lazard calculates the cost of new coal in the USA at $60 to $143/MWh, and gas combined cycle at $48 to $78/MWh. Tesla's Powerpack costs $107/MWh, which compares with Lazard's pricing for gas peaking plants of $165 to $217/MWh. So 12 hours of storage plus the cost of wind or solar would be around $90/MWh, cheaper than peaking power gas and about the same as coal. Only gas combined cycle running as baseload is cheaper, and only in the USA. (These costs will differ for other countries. PPAs and the LCOEs depend on interest rates. Countries with high interest rates will see fossil fuel electricity as relatively cheaper than countries with low interest rates because the present value of future costs (fuel) is reduced in the calcs by higher interest rates.)
There is no reason why the declining trend in the costs of wind and solar projects will end.
The headwinds faced by coal are obvious.
No comments:
Post a Comment