Toyota's EV forecasts

From Drive.com.au:

Toyota has given the combustion engine a stay of execution beyond the middle of the century.

Speaking to media during a presentation after the 2017 Tokyo motor show, the Japanese car maker's head of research and development, Kiyotake Ise, outlined the company's future powertrain plans, saying Toyota will hedge its bets across a wide variety of alternative fuel solutions including regular hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and fully-electric cars.

However, in spite of major countries like the UK, France, India and China setting targets to ban the sale of cars with combustion engines between 2030 and 2040 and plenty of analysts predicting the death of petrol engines within the next decade, Ise projected the majority of vehicles sold by Toyota, one of the world's largest car makers, in 2050 will still have a petrol-powered engine, albeit with some form of electric assistance.

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The chart Ise showed was more equivocal:

Source

(ICE=Internal combustion engine
HV=hybrid vehicle
PHV=plug-in hybrid vehicle
FCV=fuel cell vehicle
EV=electric vehicle.)

After 2040 Toyota predicts that there will be no ICEVs (petrol/diesel engine cars) sold.  Optimistically, they still have hybrid sales, which for the inventor of the hybrid car is kinda loyal, but I suspect there will be no plain hybrid sales, for the simple reasons (a) that governments will insist on lower total emissions, which means at least some electric; and (b) batteries will be so cheap that giving a hybrid car 50 k's of range will cost so little extra you might as well do it.  Even now, with batteries costing US$250/kWh, an extra 50 kms of electric-only range would cost just $2000.  By 2030 it will likely cost just $200. 

I suspect that PHEV sales will be strong until 2030 or so, when battery costs drop enough to make pure EVs very attractive and fast charge networks have been rolled out.  Before that, range anxiety and cost will make PHEVs more attractive than EVs.  After that PHEVs will stop selling. 

Toyota's faith in hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles is baffling.  The chemical bond between the hydrogen and the oxygen atom in water is very strong.  It requires a lot of energy to break water up into oxygen and hydrogen.  Tesla says its batteries are 90% efficient.  Converting water to hydrogen and oxygen by electrolysis and burning the hydrogen in a fuel cell is less than 50% efficient, and that's before you count the energy cost of compressing the H2 for transport and transporting it.  Then there's the financial cost of setting up a new hydrogen supply network.  (See this informative piece about the whole process here)  Then there is already an electricity grid which chargers can be connected to.  OK, you can make hydrogen from fossil fuels, but what's the point?   With seasonal storage, the high cost of electrolysis is offset by the need to only use it for a small part of the year.  There's no such reduction with FCVs.  I think FCVs are a dead end.  Except for specialised niche markets, there won't be any in 2030. 

Which leaves EVs.  Toyota has been dead against EVs, preferring FCVs.  But EVs are already far cheaper than FCVs.  By 2030 EVs will be huge sellers, limited only by range anxiety.  Toyota will have to get on board or lose market share, which given that Toyota invented the hybrid car would be very sad.

The interesting overall picture from Toyota though is this: in 20 years, all new cars sold will be partially or completely electric, and by 2030 50% will be.  That's probably too conservative.  The same S-curve Toyota shows will apply, only it will be a lot steeper than their official forecasts.