SpaceX, Mars, and genius

BFR launching huge satellite

Last year Elon Musk came up with a plan to get to Mars.  The key is to make it cheap enough that it would be commercially viable.  When Congress asked NASA how much it would cost to send 5 men to Mars, they estimated $50 billion.  $10 billion per person!!!  Congress said that was too expensive.  Musk agreed.  He said he wants to do it at a cost of $500,000 per person or if possible, much less--a 20,000 fold reduction.

But to cut costs this much, you have to:

• Have reusable rockets.  Up till SpaceX did it, no one had been able to get rockets to land back safely on earth, an obvious prerequisite to reusing them.  This alone will be enough to cut the cost 100 - 1000 fold.
• Refuel the spaceship in orbit.  This will cut costs 5-10 times.
• Manufacture fuel on Mars so it doesn't have to be carried there.  This will be done via the Sabatier process.  Mars has lots of frozen water and an atmosphere of CO2.  This will cut the cost by another 5-10 times.

Musk's original plans are beautifully explained  here.

BFR at Space Station

So with the largest cut in costs, if all the fixes work as well as Elon Musk/SpaceX estimate, then it will cost $100,000 to get to Mars.  As time goes by the cost will prolly keep on declining.  If that sounds horribly expensive, remember that it cost £30/US$150 to cross the Atlantic one way by steamer in 1900.  The average weekly wage in 1905 in the US was $10.05, so a one way ticket across the Atlantic cost about 1/3rd of year's wages. In 2014 the average wage in the US was $73,298.  So a one way ticket to Mars will cost 16 months' wages.  But Musk has said there will be a free ticket home for anyone who wants it.  So 8 months' wages one way versus 6 months' wages one way via steamer (in considerable luxury, naturally).

BFR at Luna Base

Of course, he may not cut cost by as much as he wants to.  But I wouldn't bet against Musk.  Everything he said he would do he's done (except it usually took longer!)

Getting to Mars and back

Yesterday, Elon Musk updated us with SpaceX's new plans.   The basic plan is the same, but he has a year's more achievements and planning under his belt.  First there have been 16 successful back to back landings of the first stage of Falcon 9.  Second, Musk has worked out how to fund the Mars venture.  He's going to concentrate on the new (slightly smaller) Mars Explorer, which will replace his existing Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragon.  So the one rocket and booster, 100% reusable, will be used to launch satellites, service the International Space Station, set up a colony on the moon, and go to Mars.  Construction of the Mars Explorer will start in Q2 next year.  The first cargo ships will leave in 2022.  The first manned ships will leave in late 2024.  And what was a throwaway thought last year, that this rocket could be used to fly people around the world is now part of their business plan: rocket ships between major cities in the world cutting flying time to under an hour everywhere and under 30 minutes to most places.  And all without government funding!

First City on Mars

This is all more or less existing technology, now, thanks to the key innovation by SpaceX, reusable boosters and ships.  It's going to happen.  I hope I live to see it.

(I've done an update, here)

This is the video of Musk's speech to the International Aeronautical Congress in Adelaide.  It's long, but it's quite enthralling.