Up 1.3 C since pre-industrial times

From Our World in Data

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are the primary driver of climate change today.1

CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide are emitted when we burn fossil fuels, produce materials such as steel, cement, and plastics, and grow the food we eat. If we want to reduce these emissions, we need to transform our energy systems, industries, and food systems.

At the same time, we need to tackle energy poverty, low standards of living, and poor nutrition, which all remain enormous problems for billions of people.

Technological advances could allow us to do both. The prices of solar, wind, and batteries have plummeted in recent decades, increasingly undercutting the cost of fossil fuel alternatives. Further progress could allow us to provide cheap, clean energy for everyone. Political change is essential to create a system that supports rapid decarbonization.

Emissions are still rising in many parts of the world. However, several countries have managed to cut their emissions in recent decades. With affordable low-carbon technologies, other countries can increase their living standards without the high-carbon pathway that rich countries followed in the past.

Human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of the global rise in temperatures.1 This link between global temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations – especially CO2 – has been true throughout Earth’s history.2

In the chart, we see the global average temperature relative to a baseline, which is the average between 1861 and 1890. This gives us an estimate of the temperature increase compared to “pre-industrial” times. Average global temperatures have risen by approximately 1.3°C since then (with even higher anomalies in the last few years).

This warming has not been equally distributed across the world. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than the Southern Hemisphere. In some regions, temperatures have risen by more than 5°C. You can see this distribution in maps published by Berkeley Earth.

Human emissions have been the main driver of this change. Aerosols have played a slight cooling role in global climate, and natural variability has played a minor role. This article from Carbon Brief explains this very well, with interactive graphics showing the relative contributions of different factors to the climate.

The broad pathway for temperatures has been flat from 1850-1919, rising from 1920 to 1944, falling from 1945 to 1976, and rising since then.  The post-war fall was caused by the simultaneous rise in sulphur dioxide emissions, a by-product of burning coal, and as aerosols (sulphur dioxide) was reduced to stop acid rain, the heating hidden by SO2 was revealed.  The recent acceleration in the rate of increase in observed temperatures is blamed on the decline in SO2 emissions because of cleaner diesel being used by shipping.