I've updated my US private data index, originally created to fill the gap caused in public data by the prolonged shutdown. I've also added another constituent time series, the "optimism" index from Real Clear Markets, and I've extended the calculation back to 2010.
Note how the index plunges after the Fed raised interest rates, then started a recovery in late 2023, and fell sharply after Trump came to office. It's still falling.
Doesn't look as if employment will be growing fast any time soon.
And this is what the year-on-year change in the index looks like. One struggles to describe this as a "strong economy".
Observe that all the trends are still down.
The chart below shows the sub-indices in the ISM whole economy index, for prices paid and employment. The surge in inflation appears to be over, but the ISM employment data suggest that employment is weakening. Again, note how it had started picking up only to fall in a heap since January
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