Solar doubling every 3 years

 From EV Curve Futurist

We’re about to hit the phase of the S-curve where the world goes from “fast” to “holy shit.” Solar’s doubling on a 24-month cycle — but the real elephant in the room is #BESS. As storage scales, the grid stops being a bottleneck and starts becoming a battery-backed solar engine.

Solar is by far the cheapest source of electricity. And the plunge in battery costs means that it can now provide what used to be called baseload power, cheap and carbon-free. It's doubling every 3 years (the chart says 2 years but the text says 3, and Our World in Data also says 3, so I'll go with 3). In 2024 solar provided 7% of the world's electricity, Total electricity demand rose by 2582 TWh over the last 3 years, while solar alone rose by 1077 TWh. With solar doubling every 3 years, solar should rise by ~2100 TWh over the next 3. Wind rose by 640 TWh over 3 years. If demand grows by 10% over the next 3 years, the rise in supply from wind and solar will meet 96% of the rise in total electricity demand. And when solar doubles again, over the subsequent 3 years, demand for electricity from coal power stations will plunge. Emissions from electricity generation will have peaked.