S&P Global's PMI for Euro-zone manufacturing looks as if it is still in an uptrend, and it is toying with the 50% recession line. But it's very far from a boom. Yes, the PMI is up from its low of 43 in 2023. 43, by the way, is consistent with a deep recession. But it's been flat for the last couple of months. The European Central Bank (ECB) has made it clear it's not going to act to fend off a slowdown or recession caused by Trump's trade war--a mistake in my opinion.
For now, I'd say the European economy is troughing, i.e., diffusion indices like the PMI are at 50%, meaning there are more respondents with improving sales/production/employment than there are where those are falling. The recovery has prolly begun, but don't go looking for a robust upswing. The ECB may well have to go back to cutting rates again. Trump's swingeing tariffs on China are leading to China's exporters looking for new markets, with the effect that China's deflation is being exported to Europe. Inflation is not going to be Europe's problem over the next 12 months; growth is.
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