From Professor Ray Wills:
Only excuse for politicians who
- continue subsidies on costly fossil fuels
- think nuclear power is cheap
- claim clean energy is expensive
- want to end decarbonisation?
Idiots
Only idiots ignore the data
My model projections from 2018, and updated 2025:
Prof Wills wasn't 100% correct in his forecasts back in 2018 (nearly 8 years ago). On the other hand, he was among the least wrong. The IEA (International Energy Agency), for example, consistently, year after year, underestimated the growth in renewables, and overestimated the growth in demand for fossil fuels. I myself thought that emissions from coal peaked in 2018, and instead there was a surge in electricity generation from coal in China. You can read about my latest forecast that emissions have peaked, here.
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| 2018 forecasts |
Wills sees oil peaking in 2027, and coal and gas peaking now.
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| 2025 forecasts |
Note that the two charts below show primary energy consumption, which is much more than, say, electricity production, because three-quarters of the fuel burnt to generate electricity or to power an ICEV is wasted as heat.
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| 2018 forecasts |
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| 2025 forecasts |
You'll notice that Wills doesn't think nuclear will grow:
Most important reason nuclear isn't viable in one graph
Apart from long build, it's expensive electricity, [and] if it's really hot, you need to turn them off
Not to mention that all the lethal by-products.
Global solar output overtook nuclear output 2025
Global wind output will pass nuclear output early 2028
Now here's where some peeps lose it and call me a loony:
[In] my model projection, renewable[s] will pass fossil fuel primary energy consumption in 2035
Does that mean that we will have halved emissions by then? No, because there is still growth in demand. But each year that the share of renewables rises means that demand growth will be increasingly supplied by renewables.
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