Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Two regional Fed indicators are strengthening

 Most indicators are pointing down, but a couple are rising.  The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed indicators is trending up after falling since the beginning of the year (Trump's tariff pagaille).  It's true, this only covers the NE United States, so isn't definitive.  However, it fits well with the average of the two national surveys by the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) and the PMI (Purchasing managers' index, from S&P Global):



Here's the thing:  if the US is re-accelerating, the Fed simply won't cut rates again.  Not while the rise in costs because of tariffs is still working its way through the system.  They do not want inflation to become embedded into the system, and if the economy is recovering, they have no need to.

We'll see.

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