Solar surging by 64% per annum

 From EMBER

Global solar installations are on track for another record year. In the first six months of 2025, the world added 380 GW of new solar capacity — 64% higher than during the same period in 2024, when 232 GW were installed. In 2024, it took until September for global solar capacity additions to surpass 350 GW, while in 2025, the milestone was reached in June.

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The rapid expansion of solar capacity in recent years has made it the fastest growing source of new electricity generation. In 2024, global solar output rose by 28% (+469 TWh) compared to 2023, more than any other source.

China remains the global leader of this surge. In the first half of 2025, its installations more than doubled compared with the same period last year. As a result, China added more than twice as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined, making up 67% of the global total. In the first half of 2024, China made up 54% of global solar installations.

This growth was spurred in part by developers racing to complete projects before new rules on wind and solar compensation came into effect in June this year. While this may lead to a slowdown in the second half of the year, new clean power procurement requirements for industry and higher full-year deployment expectations from China’s solar PV association (CPIA) suggest that 2025 will surpass 2024’s record high installations.

Outside China, all other countries together installed an estimated 124 GW in the first half of 2025 — 15% higher than the first half of 2024. India recorded the second highest installations with 24 GW, a 49% increase over the already strong 16 GW added in deployment in H1-2024. The United States ranked third with 21 GW, up 4% year-on-year, despite recent moves by the US government to restrict clean power deployment. Deployment dipped slightly in Germany and Brazil. The remaining countries added 65 GW in H1-2025, 22% more than in H1-2024.

Growth in Africa is also beginning to take off, as the amount of solar panels it imported from China rose 60% in the last 12 months, as Ember reported. However, lack of access to official installation data still obscures the actual pace of solar deployment on the continent.

With deployment surging across key markets and China’s rapid scale-up pushing global installations to new highs, 2025 is on track to become another historic year for solar power. The numbers highlight not only solar’s momentum, but also its pivotal role in reshaping the global energy system.

In 2024, solar provided 6.9% of the world's electricity.  In 2014, it was 0.8%.  The growth rate in the absolute output of solar over the last 10 years has averaged 32% per annum.

Over the last year, solar output grew 28%.  Electricity demand, since 2019, has increased by 2.8% per annum.  If solar output continues to grow this fast --- and we are in the midst of an S-curve inflexion point --- and electricity demand growth remains at 2.8%  per annum, by 2027, the rise in the supply of electricity from solar alone will exceed the total growth of electricity demand.  Just from solar.  Ignore increases from wind and nuclear.  

Of course, one can construct different scenarios.  Solar growth could slow.  And demand growth could accelerate, because of the rollout of EVs and AI data centres.  I'm comfortable with the growth in solar supply:  solar panels are cheap, battery storage in cheap, and both are getting cheaper.  The world is switching to solar plus storage because it makes economic sense to do so, and will make more sense every year that passes.   Only the USA (unfortunately) is immune to this logic.  Because battery costs are falling so fast, it's entirely possible output from solar will accelerate, because previous limitations on the percentage of solar in the grid, imposed by the lack of storage, fall away.

Demand, however, will probably accelerate, because of EVs, and maybe AI data centres.  If demand growth accelerates by 50%, to 4.2% per annum, the crossover point will come in 2029.   And every year after that, solar supply will continue to rise by larger and larger amounts in absolute terms, reducing coal faster and faster.

This doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet.  For global temperatures to stop rising, total emissions have to fall to close to zero.  The growth in solar will only reduce emissions from electricity generation, which is ~30% of total electricity supply.   And, even with the very rapid growth in EVs, it will take a decade at least for the car fleet to transition after EVs reach 100% of sales.  But it's a giant beginning.  Rich countries have reduced emissions because we felt it right to do so, despite the cost.  But the rest of the world couldn't afford to do that.  Now it can, and the magic of the S-curve means that this shift  can only accelerate.