This chart is prolly very familiar to you, as I've shown it often before. It shows the extreme-adjusted ISM and PMI surveys for manufacturing, as well as their average. As I've mentioned before, if you have tow time series which are (statistically) independent, their average will have a smaller "error" than each one individually. Extreme-adjustment removes statistical outliers, especially big "spikes" up or down, such as during and after Covid.
As ever, the line to watch is the thick green one.
The world, including the USA, had begun a new upturn, as the effect of tightening policy by the world's Central Banks had started to fade. That process, in the US at least, has reversed. And it's just the beginning. Note that the average of the two surveys (the green line) has fallen back below the 50% "recession line".
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