Sunday, August 31, 2025

I can spot a trend when I see one

 From Jesse Felder


Albert Edwards: “A slow-motion crisis is unfolding in the government bond markets that equity investors continue to ignore at their peril.” www.marketwatch.com/story/theres...




Government bonds almost always get repaid.  But shares can go bankrupt, or their prices can halve, or they can suspend dividends.  Bond prices can also fluctuate, even though the payment at the end of their term is guaranteed.   All the same, if you wish to avoid a realised capital loss, you can just hold your bonds to maturity, when you will be paid out in full.  What this means is that if bond yields are drifting higher, then you would expect dividend, or earnings, yields to also be increasing.  Which would, ceteris paribus, reduce share prices.  Yet share prices keep on rising, and earnings/dividend yields keep on falling.  Which is inconsistent, unless economic growth is going to be high.   And I think that's probably unlikely.



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