This is the average of US and OECD Europe (which excludes a few European countries, the most notable of which is Russia), which represents roughly half the world's GDP.
Note how it had started to rise, and then as Trump's tariffs impacted, it fell. Business confidence tends to lead the cycle.
Of course, any indicator may change direction, but if this downtrend continues, it will signal at best sluggish growth, at worst recession.
I'm busy extending the business confidence series in my data banks, and will add more countries to this calculation to get a more representative picture of global trends.
I need to work on my font sizes in my charts too!
I'll keep you posted.
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