Renewables boom in China

 From Nicholas Fulghum (who works for EMBER)

In the first five months of 2025, coal power has fallen in China compared to 2024.

Solar power is up 120 TWh, meeting 86% of the increase in electricity demand.

Wind also up substantially

Demand rose by 130 TWh, but solar rose by 120, and wind by 72, leading to a decline of 64 TWh in coal.  

However, growth in electricity demand has been relatively low so far this year, reflecting China's economic doldrums.  If growth picks up, electricity generation from coal will return to positive growth again.  

All the same, last year (2024) generation from renewables grew by 17%, which means it's nearly doubling every four years.  In 2024, renewables (excluding nuclear) provided 34% of total electricity.  Demand trend growth over the last 10 years has been 6% per annum.   This will likely pick up as EVs move to 100% of car sales and of the car fleet.  So demand growth may accelerate, unless economic growth slows.  At, say, 8% demand growth, generation from coal will peak in 2028.  At 6% (because China's trend GDP growth rate may have slowed enough that even extra demand from EVs doesn't lead to an acceleration in electricity demand), the peak occurs next year.  Under either demand growth scenario, all coal generation ends by the mid 2030s.  And remember: the accelerated rise in electricity demand is because electricity is replacing petrol (gasoline) and diesel in the car/lorry fleet. 

We are within sight of China's emissions peaking.  It won't happen this year, but it's possible next year, and probable by 2028.  That's unambiguously good news.