The provisional ("flash") GDP-weighted average PMI for the big 5 major regions/economies rose in July. Of the 5 areas, (US, Euro Zone, India, Japan and the UK), only the UK's whole-economy PMI fell. The rise was mostly driven by services.
My calculation of world industrial production confirms that it is manufacturing/industrial production which is weakening. These sectors are more impacted by the actuality of the trade wars. The chart below shows there has been a moderate (and only a moderate) slowing in world IP (my calculation) [As a result of improvements to my data source, I am more confident in the quality of this time series.]
The world had started a new upturn. Europe's economy, particularly, has shown strong signs of a recovery. The US recovery looks a lot less certain. So far, inflation has only picked up a little as a result of the tariff increases, because businesses stocked up in advance. But the price increases are starting to bite now.
China seems to be recovering.
My assessment is that the improvement in world growth will pause, as gains outside the US compete with a retreating US economy. The US and Europe plus UK are +-25% each, China is another (probably!) 15-20%. So it's possible, though rare, for the US to go into recession without the world following.
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