World economy on brink of recession

This chart shows the Big 8 GDP-weighted PMIs for manufacturing and services.  Just a reminder--the big 8 consists of the US, UK, EA (Euro zone), Japan, China, Russia, India and Brazil, and represents roughly 70% of the world economy.  I have extreme-adjusted each series before I created the global averages.

Some points to note:

1.  The index for manufacturing had started to rise, consistent with the beginnings of a new recovery after the impact of rising interest rates stopped rising in mid-2023, and started falling from Q4 2024.  Since Trump's tariff wars, it has been declining
2. The services index has been falling steadily since December.  Services can quickly respond to uncertainty, for there are no long supply chains, and no inventory.  For example, if you start to worry about the future, you can cancel or postpone your holiday.  That's harder to do with manufacturing.
3. The average of these two, which is a proxy for the whole economy, is drifting lower (though not plummeting) 

The small 15 weighted average PMI, which covers manufacturing only, historically tracks the big 8 quite closely.  However, over the last few months, a big divergence has opened up, as small economies as a whole have slid, though some have done much worse than others.  My small 15 make up 11.5% of the world economy, but there is some overlap with the big 8, since Belgium (0.58%) and Finland (0.18%) are members of the Euro Zone.

Finally, the GDP-weighted PMI for Asia (JP,CH,IN,ID,TW,KR,MY,TH) has plunged.   Together, these countries make up +-28% of world GDP.  Again, this is the PMI for manufacturing only.

The only bright spot:  manufacturing in Europe is picking up.   Will a nascent European recovery be sidelined by the trade war and its associated uncertainty?  Perhaps not, given Europe's economic heft.   And yet, the services PMI is declining.

My judgement is that the world is on the brink of recession.