The chart shows the manufacturing PMI and services PMI and their GDP-weighted average for the big 8 economies. Each time series has been extreme-adjusted before addition. The big 8 are: the USA, the Euro zone, China, Japan, the UK, Brazil, India and Russia. They represent roughly 70% of PPP world GDP.
The green line, which approximately represents the whole economy (=+- GDP), is still, just, above 50%, the "recession line". But only just, and it is very likely that it will cross into recession in May or June. The trade war might affect the US most, but it will also be bad news for other economies. And its effects are only just starting.
You can see the global effect hitting small economies, already. The chart below shows the manufacturing PMI for the big 8 and for the "small 12" (GDP-weighted avg of Switz, Swed, SA, NZ, Israel, Can, Bel, Aust, Fin, Nor, Den, Thai, ) roughly 8% of world PPP GDP. (Note: I am in the process of adding Mexico and Malaysia to the small 12 PMI, which will, obviously, take it up to the small 14. Duh.)
More or less everywhere you look (except Africa as a whole) PMIs are slumping. The conclusion is obvious.
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